[epub] Re: Ezine Subscriptions

["Mark Brownlow" <mark.brownlow@xxxxxxxxx>]

> Mark, I'm interested in any ideas you have to determine this
> percentage.  How, if at all, can you measure the fraction of
> single opt-ins who might not confirm their membership,
> yet are interested in your publication?  And then, how does
> >one determine the value of this group to the ezine's bottom line?

Good questions Mani, as ever. You can work out how many subscriptions you're
"losing" through double opt-in through your subscription logs, which record
requests and confirmations, assuming you use a service or software that
records this information.

The current issues of http://www.ezine-tips.com/ are dealing with this topic
BTW, but the anecdotal figures I've heard from around the Web are that
around 30% of "subscribers" fail to confirm. Your numbers will vary ;-) And
of course some of these are accounted for by blackhole addresses etc.

I'm not sure you can ever calculate the precise percentage of those who
don't confirm, but are interested, as opposed to those that don't confirm
because they can't be bothered. Some people do send up follow-up
confirmation request messages, if the first goes unanswered (another
issue!).

Instead, you can test the differences in response between single opt-in and
double opt-in and do a bit of maths to work out the net effects. And
remembering, of course, that all the "responsive" double opt-in-ers are
still going to be subscribing if you only offer single opt-in (I assume).

You could, for example, switch to double opt-in for a period, and split your
mailings into two, filtered by date to sort single opt-in from double
opt-in. Then compare the results in terms of clickthroughs (or whatever
other metric you use to measure "success"). You'd have some bias though,
through the "length of time subscribed" effect.

This kind of testing or filtering won't be possible for a lot of ezines, so
then you can fall back on intuition. Or simply consider the marginal (i.e.
extra) cost of sending mail to an additional subscriber. If you're using a
free or fixed-rate service, the extra mail doesn't cost you anything, so you
have "nothing to lose".

That opens a whole host of other issues, though. Like how does this affect
the value of your list for advertisers (another reason to use double opt-in
if you're selling ads).

There are other dimensions to the argument, as well. For example, you may
simply feel more comfortable knowing that all your subscribers were so
motivated to join that they negotiated the double opt-in process. "Horses
for courses", as they say in Australia and elsewhere.

Ultimately though, I think it's down to the ezine publisher to *create*
interest and responsiveness, rather than rely on the basic level of
pre-existing interest in the subscriber base. After all, double opt-in won't
help if you don't meet expectations.

So the single/double opt-in decision should probably more be based on where
you're getting your subscribers from and what you're using your list for.

I write too much.

Mark

Mark Brownlow, Author

The Keeping the Key Report
"How to give your email newsletters impact & influence"
http://www.KeepingtheKey.com



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